Trends and drivers of homicide: Main findings

This report looks at long-term trends and patterns in homicide in England and Wales and other nations with the aim of explaining the trends and drivers.

This report aims to assess the main drivers of homicide in England and Wales since 1960. It uses data analysis of trends and patterns in England and Wales and also other nations, given the evidence that global trends show a high level of correlation with those in England and Wales. It also includes a rapid evidence assessment of drivers of homicide. This is divided into sections corresponding with the drivers of crime identified in the Modern Crime Prevention Strategy: alcohol, drugs, the effectiveness of the Criminal Justice System, opportunity, character and profit.

The report finds that homicide is a complex crime with many different overlapping categories including alcohol and drug-related cases, gang-related cases, domestic cases, sexually motivated cases and so on. However, careful analysis reveals that homicide trends display clear patterns. Understanding these patterns is important for police, policy-makers and others aiming to reduce homicide. The report tentatively suggests that two trends have driven homicide since 1960: a ‘long wave’ that affected all types of homicide and crime more generally, which possibly suggests a rise and fall in risk factors for offending; and a series of locally-specific ‘short waves’ focused on male-on- male homicides and likely to be connected to gangs, organised crime and illicit drugs.